About eight months ago, the Miami Heat were involved in the NBA Finals. Terry Rozier is a tremendously skilled offensive creator that the team acquired a few weeks ago. He can produce jaw-dropping highlights seemingly out of thin air. Jimmy Butler, a star forward, is making a career-high 44% of his three-point shots and appears more assured than ever when he shoots beyond the arc.
Even still, given how awful the Heat’s offence is overall, a postseason run seems doubtful. It’s physically difficult to watch at times. This Heat team will win you over if you remember the days when the NBA Final Score was 83-74. They play every game as though they’re trying to recreate that atmosphere.
Is the Heat pulling a ruse once more, stumbling through the regular season in order to go into overdrive come playoff time? Or are the Heat indeed awful, losing a lot during the regular season and then getting swept early in the postseason? Given this team’s past, it might not be able to tell.
Right now, Miami’s offence is No. 23 in the NBA, which is eighth-worst if you start at the bottom. That mark has gotten worse recently. Really, it’s almost as terrible as it gets. Miami’s offensive rating over the last 15 games is No. 29, helped only by Memphis, which is essentially playing like a G League club every night due to its numerous ailments.
It’s not immediately obvious what the Heat offense’s issue is. Although his output has decreased, Butler is still a top player, Duncan Robinson is shooting well, Bam Adebayo is an All-Star, Tyler Herro is making over 40% of his 3-pointers, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is among the league’s best rookies. Miami turns the ball over, but not at an alarming rate (16th in TOV%); its AST% is in the top ten. Even though there isn’t a clear weakness on paper, you might be shocked by how hopeless this team’s offensive performance appears to be. There is a lot of late-clock fear because of the frequent ball sticking, minimal off-ball movement, and a lack of players who can create for themselves. Miami’s 27th-ranked tempo doesn’t help either.
But regardless of how awful things appear to be on that front for Miami at the moment, it’s critical to keep in mind that this team was just as poor, if not worse, offensively prior to the start of the playoffs the previous season. In 2022–23, Miami’s offensive ranking was No. 25, and the four teams that trailed it were the NBA’s bottom four teams. The 2022–23 Heat had a negative net rating, just like this year. And before the postseason actually started, that club was, like this year, considered at best an early-round departure. What followed is well known.
Even though it wouldn’t be unusual for this club, it would be extremely impressive if Miami could somehow ramp up its offence during the playoffs. Given what we know, writing off these chats as already having occurred over the previous season doesn’t seem wise. Was the team’s performance in the Finals the result of a strange tactic or a fluke?
