It has been simple to overlook what might be the broader picture—draft positioning—amidst the Hornets’ recent success and positive atmosphere. The Hornets’ greatest option is to get a high pick and select a future star, even though it would be great to pile up some victories in the last games of the season and create some momentum moving forward.
Tanking in the NBA has been largely negated by the flattening of the lottery chances, although there are still slight benefits to having a lower record. These benefits show up in terms of how low a team’s pick can go as well as the actual lottery probabilities of receiving a higher pick.
In the league, for instance, the Hornets now have the fourth-worst record. They will play the Trail Blazers, who have the fifth-worst record in the NBA, on Sunday night in Portland.
Although not significantly different, there is a difference between the two places. Fourth-place teams will have a 12.5% chance to select first overall, a 12.2% chance to select second, an 11.9% chance to select third, and an 11.5% chance to select fourth. The eighth overall slot is the lowest the team’s selection might go.
In contrast, the team with the fifth-worst record will have the following odds: 10.5% to select first overall, 10.5% to select second, 10.6% to select third, and 10.5% to select fourth. The ninth overall pick is the lowest the team may land.
Therefore, although it might not seem like much, even one slot in the draft could make the difference between a bust and the next big thing in the youth league. That difference, strangely enough, will be at stake on Sunday night.
The Hornets are 14-42 going into the game, while the Blazers are 15-40. The Blazers would have a three-game advantage in the loss column and the Hornets would be practically equal in the standings if they prevailed.
With only a few games remaining and two teams that aren’t exactly winning, that’s a very significant differential. The season series won’t be settled on Sunday because both teams will play one more game in Charlotte on April 1st, but the outcome of this game could still have a significant impact on the standings and draft order.
This might be the game to support the team to play well yet lose on the scoreboard, if there was ever a game to root for a moral triumph.
